Information from: Urban Institute / “The Aging Baby Boom: Implications for Employment and Training”

Baby Boom

The post-World War II baby boom generation has had a profound effect on public policy and society at large. At each stage of the life cycle, this generation has changed the demand for public services. The social and policy phenomena associated with the baby boom result from a complex interaction of (a) the sheer numbers of people in this generation, and (b) the coincident occurrence of important events and developments in society and the economy as a whole.

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Report As the baby boom generation turns fifty, it is important to reconsider the implications for U.S. employment and training programs. This paper presents background information about the baby boom generation, its characteristics, how it compares to other generations, and factors affecting this cohort.

Population


* The baby boom generation consists of persons born between 1946 and 1964. In 1996 baby boomers were between the ages of 32 and 50. By the end of 2005, the first of the baby boomers will begin to turn 60.

* About 75 million baby boomers were born in the U.S. between 1946 and 1964. Today, there are about 83 million baby boomers in the U.S., about 10 percent of whom were born in other countries. Since immigrants tend to be younger than the general population, their presence means that 54 percent of baby boomers are in the younger part of the generation (32 to 40 years old in 1996) and 46 percent are older (41 to 50 years old in 1996).

* In 1995, baby boomers represented about 41 percent of the national total population age 16 or older. Projections are that they will continue to be a significant portion of the population until at least 2025, when there will still be 65 million baby boomers, ranging in age from 61 to 79 and constituting 25 percent of the population.


Workforce


* When baby boomers began entering the workforce, they increased the size of the labor market. Since then, they have raised the average age of the workforce. Assuming a retirement age of 65, baby boomers will not begin to retire until 2011. The median age of workers in 1994 was 38 years and by 2005, the median age will be 41 years. The labor force will continue to age until about 2015.

* In 1995, there were about 41 million workers age 45 and older, representing about 31 percent of the labor force. By 2005, there will be about 55 million workers 45 and older, or about 37 percent of the labor force. Much of the increase will occur in the 50 to 60 year old category. After 2005, there will also be an increase in the 60 to 70 year old category until the early baby boomers begin retiring in large numbers after 2020.

* Baby boomers in general have done better than any previous generation in terms of income and education. Real median household income is 35 to 53 percent higher than in their parents' generation, and about 25 to 30 percent of baby boomers have four or more years of college. Still, 11 to 13 percent lack a high school diploma. Younger baby boomers (32 to 40 year olds in 1996) have not done as well as those 41 to 50 years old. The wage stagnation that began in the mid-1970s particularly affected the younger baby boomers, especially those without high school diplomas. Baby boomers who have not graduated from high school have experienced real incomes that are 12 percent lower than for similarly educated persons in their parents' generation.


Economically-Disadvantaged



* The total economically disadvantaged population (i.e., the JTPA eligibles) will increase by about 2.3 million, or 9.5 percent, between 1995 and 2005. The age distribution of this low-income population will shift up because of the aging baby boom. In 2005, there will, for example, be about 1.3 million more 45 to 54 year old disadvantaged adults than in 1995 and 1.4 million more 55 to 70 years. In contrast, there will also be about 200,000 more 20-24 year olds and about three-quarters of a million fewer disadvantaged 25 to 34 year olds.

* This means that the JTPA-eligible population will age over the next decade. In 1995, 39 percent of the eligibles were under 35 years old, 21 percent were between 35 and 44, and 40 percent were over 45 years old. By 2005, 34 percent will be under 35, 20 percent will be between 35 and 44, and 47 percent will be over 45. Young adults 20-24 will continue to comprise about 10 percent of the eligible population.

Employment and Training


* In 1995, no more than about 3 percent of the 8.4 million economically disadvantaged 45 to 70 year olds participated in a federally-sponsored employment and training program. About half of those who did participate were over age 55 and in one of the two programs specifically for persons 55 and older--Senior Community Service Employment Program (SCSEP) (97,500 participants) and the special Job Training Partnership Act (JTPA) older workers program under Section 204(d) (13,700 participants).

* About 122,000 mature workers (age 45 and older) participated in JTPA in 1995. About 91,000 of these were in JTPA Title III dislocated worker programs. Only about 18,000 persons 45 and older were in Title IIA adult programs, which was about 11 percent of all Title IIA participants. Only about 2 percent of all IIA participants were 55 years of age or older. The overwhelming majority of mature workers in JTPA were under 55 (72 percent of the Title III and 81 percent of the Title IIA participants). Given that older persons represent about 45 percent of the eligible population, this means that older workers in general (45 and older) have been substantially under represented in JTPA IIA adult programs, in part because fewer in this age range may choose to apply.


Future Directions



* Based on historic participation, one can anticipate that the demand for employment services by older workers will increase as the baby boom generation ages over the next twenty years. That demand, mainly from those with relatively less education and work skills, may suggest that current employment and training programs should begin now to prepare for the aging of its participants and, possibly, for expanding program services to accommodate growing need. Even if the rate of participation by mature baby boomers is the same as for mature workers today, the number of persons 45 and older in IIA programs could nearly double between 1995 and 2005. If the rate of older workers choosing to enter JTPA increases, then, of course, there would be relatively more participants age 45 and older.

* The JTPA system should re-examine current service delivery approaches to assure that strategies are appropriate for older workers. For example, promising approaches include work experience/community service and small group instruction (rather than large classroom settings).

* As the baby boom ages, more persons will become eligible for special older worker employment programs. The SCSEP has been fairly effective with low-income workers over 55, but at current funding levels can serve only about 1 percent of eligibles. Once the baby boom begins to reach 55 in 2001, far fewer than 1 percent will be able to participate if funding remains constant. An increase in funding proportionate to the increase in the older population seems justified. Between 1995 and 2005, there will be 1.4 million more disadvantaged persons between the ages of 55 and 70.

* There will also be an increased need for employment-related services by persons between the ages of 45 and 54, below the SCSEP age level of 55. There will be about 1.3 million more 45 to 54 year old disadvantaged adults in 2005 than in 1995, and one third of these will be between the ages of 50 and 54. The SCSEP and 204(d) programs could be expanded to also serve the younger cohort, but services should not be reduced for those over 55. Projections are that both groups will be experiencing substantial growth.

* Federal policymakers should consider ways to also leverage both public and private resources to minimize the number of older baby boomers who need extra public support, for example, by encouraging more flexible combinations of work and retirement; and to maximize the productivity activity that this highly educated generation can continue to provide well into their sixties and beyond (e.g., by encouraging and channeling more voluntarism and community service).


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Ten predictions made a decade ago are put to the test, revealing the power of demographics to anticipate trends.


"The baby boom's middle age will transform the United States in three important ways: It will make the country more conservative; it will make the home the focus of American life; and it will make the nation richer." Those words were written a little more than ten years ago in my book, 100 Predictions for the Baby Boom.


True to its name, the book made 100 predictions about what was in store for the most influential generation in American history-- and for the nation. The predictions were based on the aging of the baby boom from 1985 (when boomers were mostly young adults aged 21 to 39) to 1995 (when boomers were aged 31 to 49). The number of predictions that came true during that decade shows the power of demographics to reveal the future.


It was not possible to test all the predictions, since many look decades into the future--one even predicts the number of boomers who will live to age 100 (1 million). Another predicts the year in which the last boomer will die (2069). But several predictions were specific to the 1990s. Here is how they panned out:


Two-thirds of baby-boom households will be married couples by 1995: The results are in and, as of 1995, married couples accounted for 60 percent of households headed by 30-to-49-year-olds. This is a little lower than the two-thirds predicted, but it's in the ballpark.


The 60 percent figure is slightly less than predicted because boomers have postponed marriage and, once married, have been quick to divorce. The percentage of women aged 35 to 39 who have never married rose from 8 percent to 13 percent between 1985 and 1995. The share of 35- to-39-year-olds who are currently divorced stood at 14 percent in 1995, peaking at 16 percent among women aged 45 to 54.


By 1995, most baby-boom women will be sterile: Recently released results from the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth reveal the striking accuracy of this prediction. As of 1995, 57 percent of baby-boom women could no longer have children. Forty-five percent had been surgically sterilized, while another 12 percent could not have children because of "impaired fecundity," defined as an inability to become pregnant after 12 months of unprotected sexual intercourse. These numbers will only grow in the future as more boomers reach menopause.


Eighty percent of baby-boom women will be working by 1995: As of 1995, 77 percent of women aged 30 to 49 were in the labor force, slightly below the predicted rate--but close enough to call a success. The rate at which boomer women increased their participation in the work force slowed in the early 1990s because of the recession and because so many had young children at home. Yet the rate shows no sign of reversing, or even stabilizing, in the near future. Boomer women who have invested money and time in educations and careers are unlikely to quit their jobs in middle age. As they age, work could become even more important.


Working women will earn 74 percent of what working men earn by 2000: This prediction is proving conservative. In 1996, the median annual earnings of women who worked full-time, year-round were already 74 percent of men's, up from 65 percent in 1985, according to the Census Bureau. This figure is likely to rise a few more percentage points by 2000.


By 1995, one in four baby-boom households will make more than $50, 000 a year (in 1985 dollars): The sum of $50,000 in 1985 is now worth about $70,000 once inflation is factored in. Among the 44.5 million householders aged 30 to 49 in 1995, the proportion with incomes of $70,000 or more stood at 22 percent, pretty close to the 25 percent predicted. The proportion of baby-boom householders with incomes of $70,000 or more ranges from 15 percent among those aged 30 to 34 to 31 percent among those aged 45 to 49, according to Census Bureau data.


The baby boom will keep the stock market volatile for the rest of this century: This prediction, made before the 1987 stock market crash, hit the nail on the head. The 1987 crash was the largest one-day percentage decline in the market's history. Record-setting ups and downs have now become almost common. And just a couple months ago, the market saw its largest-ever one-day point gain. Party to these ups and downs is the baby-boom generation. The 35-to-44 age group held 41 percent of its financial assets in stock in 1995, according to the Federal Reserve Board's Survey of Consumer Finances. This is up from 26 percent in 1989. The percentage of householders aged 35 to 44 who own stock grew from 41 percent to 47 percent during those years.


By the year 2000, three out of four baby boomers will own a home: This prediction is well on its way to coming true. The housing market is booming, and boomers who have long been priced out of the market are diving in. The homeownership rate in the United States reached a record high in 1997, thanks to boomer buyers. The proportion of boomers who own homes ranged from 53 percent among 30-to-34-year-olds to 74 percent among 45-to-49-year-olds, according to the Census Bureau. As more boomers enter their prosperous 40s and 50s, the generation' s overall homeownership rate should rise.


The buying habits of the baby boom will hurt the nation's shopping malls: To the dismay of the nation's shopping-center retailers and developers, this prediction has turned out to be only too true. Middle- aged boomers are less likely than any other age group to visit shopping malls, according to a 1997 Maritz AmeriPoll. When they go to malls, they spend less time there. Boomers aged 35 to 44 spent 34 percent less time at shopping malls in 1997 than in 1994. For those aged 45 to 54, the decline was an even steeper 41 percent. One result: mall sales growth per square foot is not even keeping pace with inflation, says the Wall Street Journal.


The baby boom will make baseball the sport of the 1990s: Oops--a foul ball here. This prediction was based on the fact that, historically, baseball is a sport most popular among the middle-aged. But the shenanigans of players and owners have changed public opinion. Although baseball still lures more Americans to stadiums than any other professional sport, it has lost its special place in the nation's heart. Baseball has also been weakened by boomers' interest in a diversity of sports. Basketball, hockey, soccer, and the new women's professional leagues are all benefiting from this trend.


The baby-boom vote will make a difference for the first time in the presidential election of 1992: Another bull's-eye. Boomers elected one of their own in 1992 and reelected him in 1996. Not only is Clinton a boomer, he is a character right out of The Big Chill. He is highly educated, experimented with marijuana, avoided the Vietnam War, married a working woman, has one child, grappled with marital problems, and is always willing to renegotiate his commitments. Of the ten predictions examined, nine proved to be correct or nearly so. Demographic trends may be slow, but they're steady. In these days of rapid change, demographics are one of the few things you can count on.


Cheryl Russell is editor-in chief of New Strategist Publications (Ithaca, New York), and executive editor of THe Boomer Report (Age Wave Communications Corporation: Emryville, California)

Russell, Cheryl, This is a test: ten predictions made a decade ago are put to the test, revealing the power of demographics to anticipate trends.(baby boomers are expected to make changes in the United States as they. Vol. 20, American Demographics, 01-01-1998, pp 14(3).



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Baby boom generation Relevancy: 100; ( World Book Encyclopedia (2002) ) Teresa A. Sullivan; 01-01-2002 Size: 5K Reading Level: 9.



Title: Baby boom generation


Byline: Teresa A. Sullivan


Baby boom generation
is the large group of people born in the United States from 1946 to 1964. During this period, about 76 million children were born there. By contrast, births totaled about 50 million during the same length of time before the baby boom and about 66 million in the same period after it. The baby boom generation has had major effects on the economy, educational system, and other parts of American life. Its members are called baby boomers or boomers.


Causes of the baby boom.


The baby boom followed the hard times of the Great Depression, which lasted throughout the 1930's; and America's participation in World War II, from December 1941 to August 1945. During this time, many Americans delayed marrying and having children because of the poor economy and the wartime conditions. But the number of marriages and births soared after the war. Many new couples were barely out of their teens. At the same time, numerous older married couples who had delayed having children began to have them when the war ended. Thus, the postwar period featured increased births among both younger and older American couples.


Historically, birth rates have increased for a short period following difficult economic times and wars. However, the increase that began in the United States after World War II continued far beyond the usual time. The economy was a key reason. The 1950's and early 1960's ranked among the most prosperous eras in U.S. history. Many couples felt economically able to support children. The ownership of automobiles and of single-family houses, chiefly in suburbs, soared. These developments encouraged a lifestyle that was favorable to raising children and enjoying family life together.


Effects of the baby boom.


The baby boom generation has had major effects on American society because of its size. Because there are so many boomers, businesses have created special advertising and marketing campaigns to gain them as customers. When the baby boomers were young, a "youth culture" in American life emphasized their music, styles and fads, and slang.


The size of the baby boom generation has also led to problems. When the boomers reached school age, schools became overcrowded. Some schools expanded to two shifts a day, and some added temporary structures to accommodate all the pupils. When the boomers reached college age, American higher education had to expand. Larger enrollments, along with inflation and other factors, pushed college costs higher. At times, the baby boomers faced relatively high levels of unemployment because they had to compete with one another for jobs. Their economic prospects have not always been as good as those their parents experienced. Perhaps in response to poorer economic conditions, boomers have tended to delay marriage and to have small families.


The baby boomers will continue to affect American life. For example, when the generation reaches retirement age, its size will put a strain on programs designed to help senior citizens. The chief pension program, the Social Security system, provides money to retired people, using funds contributed by active workers. But without revisions in the system, Social Security's funds will run out when large numbers of boomers begin to retire. For more details, see Social security - Developments since 1970; .

Teresa A. Sullivan, Baby boom generation. , World Book Encyclopedia (2002), 01-01-2002.